While the crypto community is optimistic about Bitcoin’s trajectory, Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, suggests the cryptocurrency may be on the cusp of a prolonged consolidation phase.
In a market analysis released on April 14, Thielen highlighted that short-term technical indicators are casting a more cautious light on Bitcoin, even amid predictions from various analysts of potential all-time highs by mid-year.
Bitcoin Indicators Suggest Late-Cycle Peak, According to 10x Research
Thielen referenced the Bitcoin stochastic oscillator—a momentum-measuring tool—asserting that current market behavior aligns more closely with characteristics of a late-cycle peak rather than the commencement of a new bullish trend.
“The current short-term signals are misaligned with longer-term metrics, demonstrating a fundamental disconnect in market expectations,” he noted.
Thielen also remarked on the evolution of Bitcoin’s trading dynamics, stating, “Bitcoin is no longer solely a parabolic, retail-driven market focused on long positions.”
He posits that the latest surge in Bitcoin’s price has been fueled by long-term investors and institutional players opting for a buy-and-hold strategy instead of engaging in speculative trades.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin has seen an impressive increase of over 32% in the past year, reaching approximately $83,810, according to CoinMarketCap.
Bitcoin: No Longer ‘Long Only’ ???
1-13) Year-to-date, Bitcoin ETF inflows stand at just +$225 million—and they could turn negative at any moment as the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade war continues to ripple through financial markets.
Bitcoin ETFs are on track… pic.twitter.com/zWx1SNqrx7
— 10x Research (@10x_Research) April 14, 2025
Despite the impressive rally, Thielen anticipates that Bitcoin will remain within a broad trading range, reminiscent of the consolidation patterns observed in 2024.
He forecasts Bitcoin’s price to fluctuate between $73,000 and $94,000, suggesting a minor upward momentum.
The cryptocurrency previously reached a then-record peak of $73,679 in March 2024, followed by a prolonged lateral phase that persisted until the conclusion of the U.S. elections in November, with Donald Trump’s victory marking a turning point.
Bitcoin achieved its all-time high of $109,000 in January 2025, just prior to Trump’s inauguration.
Diverging Perspectives Among Analysts
While Thielen calls for caution, other experts retain a more optimistic outlook.
Economists Timothy Peterson and Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Real Vision, anticipate that Bitcoin could reach new heights in the second quarter.
Bitcoin is trading near the low end of its historical seasonal range. Nearly all of Bitcoin’s annual performance occurs in 2 months: April and October. It is entirely possible Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high before June. pic.twitter.com/p8upTNAkKH
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) March 15, 2025
Similarly, Andrew Kang, founder of Mechanism Capital, has significantly increased his bullish position on Bitcoin, recently staking $200 million on long futures.
Reports indicate that a wallet linked to Kang executed a second $100 million leveraged long bet on Bitcoin, augmenting his total investment to $200 million.
This recent trade carries a potential gain or loss of approximately $6.8 million, underscoring Kang’s confidence in an imminent rise in Bitcoin’s value.
Last week, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan reiterated his analysis from December that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 before the end of 2025.
According to Hougan, the evolving U.S. trade policy, especially under former President Trump’s renewed focus on tariffs, could serve as a favorable backdrop for Bitcoin.
He believes that the administration’s willingness to devalue the U.S. dollar—despite the associated risks to its status as a global reserve currency—could ultimately benefit assets like Bitcoin.
Looking ahead, Hougan envisions a shift away from a singular global reserve currency towards a more diversified financial system, with Bitcoin and gold playing pivotal roles in that landscape.
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