Wednesday marks a pivotal moment for NATO as the alliance prepares to unveil a joint statement endorsing a significant increase in collective defense spending. This development follows extensive discussions urging member nations to elevate their defense budgets from the current 2% to 5% of GDP by 2035, amid challenges faced by some in meeting the existing target.
It is anticipated that NATO’s 32 member states will approve the proposed increase during the summit, as agreements among ambassadors have already been reached in principle. However, the timeline for actualizing this commitment remains uncertain, with potential delays on the horizon.
The United States’ commitment to NATO has also come under scrutiny, particularly after years of frustration expressed by former President Donald Trump towards European and Canadian allies about their defense contributions. Trump arrived at the summit questioning the fundamental principle of NATO’s collective defense (Article 5), which posits that an attack on one member is an attack on all.
“There’s numerous definitions of Article 5. You know that, right?” Trump remarked to reporters aboard Air Force One. “But I’m committed to being their friends. I’ve become friends with many of those leaders, and I’m committed to helping them.”
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte took the opportunity to reassure allies of America’s unwavering support, stating, “There is total commitment by the U.S. president and the U.S. senior leadership to NATO.” He emphasized, however, that this support comes with an expectation to address the ongoing issue of insufficient defense spending by European and Canadian nations.
“It comes with an expectation. And the expectation is that we will finally deal with this huge irritant,” Rutte stated on Tuesday, highlighting the urgency for member nations to meet their financial commitments.
‘Time to get serious’
NATO members pledged in 2014 to allocate 2% of their GDP to defense, but several countries, including Canada and Spain, have struggled to meet this obligation. In contrast, nations like Poland and Estonia, located closer to Russia, have significantly exceeded the 2% benchmark.
Particularly vocal about the proposed increase, Spain, which currently ranks as the lowest defense spender in the alliance, expressed concerns during the summit. The Spanish government labeled the shift to 5% as “unreasonable,” seeking to negotiate for greater flexibility in meeting the new spending target. Belgium and Italy have similarly voiced reservations, with Italy asserting it would struggle to reach 2% this year.
Despite dissenting opinions, Rutte expressed confidence that opposition from states like Spain would not thwart the objectives of the summit. He acknowledged the difficulty of these decisions but maintained a cautious optimism about members reaching a consensus on increased spending.
“Seven or eight countries… were not even at the 2% target at the beginning of this year, but now they’ve committed to doing it,” Rutte remarked during a press conference.
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Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson reflected on the gravity of the situation, stating, “You can’t rule out any kind of problem.” He emphasized the importance of taking defense matters seriously, highlighting a collective commitment to maintain NATO’s unity during the summit.
Estonia’s defense minister, Hanno Pevkur, asserted that a compromise is essential among NATO’s members. He suggested that achieving the 5% target by 2035 is realistic, but emphasized the need for regular reviews of resource capabilities.
“The worst-case scenario is not reaching a consensus. However, the likelihood of that happening is minimal,” he remarked.
