According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, Bitcoin is poised for a potential dip to $90,000 before initiating a new upward trajectory. This forecast is underscored by a brief market correction that Hayes believes will precede a rally fueled by stablecoins issued by US banks.
In a recent blog post, Hayes articulated a scenario where the policies of central banks intersect with Wall Street incentives, potentially injecting trillions of dollars into digital assets.
Hayes contends that the significant influence of fully regulated, dollar-backed stablecoins from major banks, such as JPMorgan, has not yet been factored into the market. He argues these stablecoins will not only compete with established entities like Tether and Circle’s USDC but will also serve as vital instruments for converting bank reserves and retail deposits currently stuck in low-yield accounts.
“Quid Pro Stablecoin” is a discussion on how US banks adopting stablecoins can provide $6.8 trillion of buying power for The BBC’s treasury. https://t.co/QHqgZAPv0J pic.twitter.com/pcejYZ8Urx
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) July 3, 2025
Volatility Expected Before Market Rebound, Says Hayes
Hayes predicts that the introduction of these stablecoins would act as a new injection of liquidity, akin to the effects of quantitative easing, but without the necessity for formal actions from the Federal Reserve.
By allowing banks to channel retail funds into short-term Treasury bills without incurring penalties related to capital rules, these stablecoins would significantly enhance liquidity for risk assets like Bitcoin and technology stocks.
However, Hayes anticipates a spell of market turbulence before this occurs. He cites historical trends and prevailing market sentiment to forecast a potential decline for Bitcoin to $90,000, as profit-taking among speculators and a cautious approach from traders emerge in anticipation of clearer direction from the Federal Reserve.
Despite this short-term outlook, Hayes maintains a long-term optimistic stance, asserting that once Wall Street embraces tokenized dollars, the influx of capital will accelerate.
GENIUS Act’s Passage Signals a Strategic Advantage for Banks
This analysis appears timely as stablecoins regain focus amid US lawmakers’ proposed bipartisan initiatives aimed at granting federal approval for banks to issue tokenized dollars.
Recently, the US Senate passed the much-anticipated GENIUS Act with strong bipartisan support, marking a significant step toward establishing a comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins—one of the fastest-growing areas within the digital asset sector.
The Act was approved by a vote of 68–30 and represents the Senate’s initial foray into dedicated regulation for stablecoins.
According to Hayes, this regulatory progress gives traditional banks a tactical advantage. With their established retail networks and regulatory infrastructures, as well as direct access to the Federal Reserve, these banks are well-positioned to profit from converting deposits into short-term Treasuries through stablecoin issuance.
Hayes estimates that if banks move just a fraction of their $17 trillion in deposits into stablecoin products, it could generate an unprecedented $6.8 trillion in demand for US government debt. Coupled with adjustments in how the Federal Reserve provides interest on reserves, this shift could inundate markets with liquidity, potentially igniting asset inflation across both cryptocurrency and equity markets.
In the meantime, Hayes views the anticipated dip as a strategic buying opportunity, suggesting that the eventual arrival of dollar-backed stablecoins from prominent banks will unleash a wave of liquidity capable of driving Bitcoin and other risk assets to new heights. He believes this development will signify the onset of a new phase in the market cycle.
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