Renowned macroeconomist Lyn Alden has expressed optimism that Bitcoin will conclude 2025 at a price exceeding its current value of approximately $85,000.
In a recent interview with Natalie Brunell on Coin Stories, Alden acknowledged that her initial price expectations were higher prior to the recent tariff disputes. “Before all this tariff kerfuffle, I would have had a higher price target,” she remarked on April 17.
Despite her expectation for Bitcoin to appreciate by year-end, Alden cautioned that the tariffs implemented in February have influenced her outlook, moderating her previous bullish stance.
Potential Liquidity Surge Could Drive Bitcoin Higher
Alden elaborated that a substantial increase in liquidity could enable Bitcoin to reach more ambitious price targets.
This situation may arise if the U.S. bond market encounters a crisis, prompting the Federal Reserve to enact measures such as quantitative easing or yield curve control.
Even with existing macroeconomic challenges, Alden maintains a “good chance” that Bitcoin could surpass the $100,000 threshold by 2025.
However, she highlighted global market volatility as a significant barrier, particularly given Bitcoin’s continuous trading nature, unlike traditional stock markets that operate within limited hours.
“Because it trades 24/7, if people are worried about how things are going to open on Monday, some pools of capital can sell their Bitcoin on a Sunday and prepare,” Alden explained, emphasizing that Bitcoin often reacts more swiftly to market anxieties due to its around-the-clock operation.
While its correlation with tech-heavy indexes like the Nasdaq 100 has been observed, Alden asserted that Bitcoin can at times diverge, especially when general market conditions negatively affect U.S. equities without having a direct impact on global liquidity.
She drew parallels to the period from 2003 to 2007, when a weakened U.S. dollar spurred capital influx into commodities, emerging markets, and gold, sidelining U.S. stocks.
A similar landscape could be beneficial for Bitcoin, according to Alden.
“If we encounter a five-year period like that again, that could be a period where Bitcoin does pretty well, even as the U.S. stock market doesn’t do particularly well,” she added.
This insightful conversation with @LynAldenContact can be regarded as an in-depth analysis of the dynamics surrounding the U.S. dollar’s role as a global reserve currency, discussing trade-offs, trade deficits, and the implications of USD dominance on the working class.
Is Trump narrowing the opportunities for USTs as primary… pic.twitter.com/fXjCqkUUNq
— Natalie Brunell (@natbrunell) April 17, 2025
In a prior research document released in September, Alden classified Bitcoin as a “Global Liquidity Barometer,” revealing that it aligns with global M2 money supply 83% of the time over any 12-month window.
Extended Consolidation Possible for Bitcoin Despite Positive Projections: 10x Research
In related developments, Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, suggested that Bitcoin might be entering a phase of prolonged consolidation.
In a recent market analysis, Thielen noted that short-term technical indicators are presenting a more cautious outlook, despite many analysts predicting new record highs within the next several months.
He referenced the Bitcoin stochastic oscillator, a momentum-measuring indicator, suggesting that current market behavior resembles characteristics more akin to a nearing top of a market cycle than the dawn of a new bullish trend.
While Thielen advises caution, some analysts retain a more optimistic viewpoint.
Economists Timothy Peterson and Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, anticipate Bitcoin will achieve new highs in the second quarter.
Bitcoin is currently trading near the lower end of its historical seasonal ranges. A significant portion of Bitcoin’s annual performance tends to occur during just two months: April and October. It’s entirely conceivable for Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high before June emerges. pic.twitter.com/p8upTNAkKH
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) March 15, 2025
Last week, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, reiterated his previous forecast that Bitcoin could potentially reach $200,000 before the end of 2025.
Hougan noted that recent changes in U.S. trade policy, particularly the renewed tariff initiatives under former President Donald Trump, could serve as favorable conditions for Bitcoin.
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