In recent weeks, the Bitcoin market has showcased a striking contrast between long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs), as strategic actions in both the spot and derivatives markets reflect a growing optimism regarding Bitcoin’s prospects.
Since the beginning of the year, long-term holders—identified by blockchain metrics as those retaining their BTC for more than 155 days—have added over 635,000 BTC to their portfolios. This comes at a time when short-term holders are actively selling off their positions.
Analysis: Long-term Bitcoin holders step up buying as short-term holders sell off
Long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs) have been steadily accumulating Bitcoin $BTC, buying 1.38 coins for every 1 BTC sold by short-term holders (STHs), according to CoinDesk, citing data from…
— CoinNess Global (@CoinnessGL) April 24, 2025
Amid this accumulation, traders are displaying heightened bullish sentiment through sophisticated options strategies, while increasing spot demand and atypical funding rate behaviors add complexity to the short-term market outlook.
The price of BTC has surged past $94,000, driven largely by intense buying activity on exchange platforms like Binance, along with substantial institutional accumulation. Nevertheless, some analysts urge caution, advising against prematurely concluding the onset of a new bull cycle.
Source: Finance Newso
Options Market Signals Bullish Confidence Amidst Market Volatility
A report by Lin Chen, Head of Asia Business Development at Deribit, highlights that Bitcoin traders are increasingly adopting cash-secured put writing strategies. This involves selling put options while securing their positions with stablecoins, functioning similarly to an insurance policy against potential price declines, allowing them to collect premiums now while being poised to buy the asset should the market take a downturn.
This approach underscores not only optimism but also a strategic, long-term vision for accumulation.
In conjunction, many BTC holders are writing call options at elevated strike prices to generate additional yields, putting pressure on Deribit’s DVOL index, which measures implied volatility.
Source: Deribit
The DVOL index has decreased from 63 to 48 since the sell-off on April 7, indicating an expectation of reduced future volatility among traders.
The bullish sentiment is further confirmed by risk reversals favoring call options, accompanied by a notable increase in open interest for options with strike prices of $95,000, $100,000, and even $135,000.
BTC Open Interest Source: Coinalyze
Specifically, Deribit’s $100K strike call has gathered over $1.6 billion in notional open interest, further solidifying the bullish momentum.
According to Volmex, the cumulative delta across BTC options on Deribit and associated ETFs, such as BlackRock’s IBIT, has now exceeded $9 billion, indicating a heightened responsiveness to fluctuations in BTC prices.
Massive delta in BTC options!
The total delta of BTC options (crypto-native + ETFs) has surpassed $9B, with total open interest reaching $43B.
Option market makers are actively hedging this delta exposure, driven by substantial new positions and notable shifts in strike… https://t.co/0KQnqWj2Rz pic.twitter.com/3MoVNDTEtj
— Volmex σ (@volmexfinance) April 23, 2025
These insights suggest that market makers are actively adjusting their hedges, which may lead to elevated short-term volatility.
Aggressive Spot Buying and Whale Accumulation Fuel Market Dynamics
While the derivatives markets indicate a cautious optimism, the spot market, particularly on Binance, has become the focal point for aggressive buying activity.
An analysis by CryptoQuant’s Crazzyblockk noted a significant uptick in the taker buy/sell ratio on Binance, reporting a 30-day rise of 18.9% and a 7-day increase of 6.2%.
Big spike in Binance taker buy/sell ratio:
+18.9% (30d)
+6.2% (7d)
Aggressive buyers are stepping in, filling sell orders with urgency on Binance.
Takers are driving the speculation—hard.
Full analysis:
https://t.co/Ph9xQcZcGm pic.twitter.com/dqqfSTwafY
— Crazzyblock (@Crazzyblockk) April 23, 2025
The surge in this ratio suggests traders are placing market buy orders rapidly, indicative of robust conviction in their actions.
Despite rising BTC prices, the funding rates on Binance have turned negative, reflecting skepticism among perpetual futures traders. Analyst Darkfost from CryptoQuant highlights that these negative rates, which stand at -0.00, resemble patterns observed in October 2023 and September 2024, both of which preceded significant price rallies.
BINANCE TRADER IN DISBELIEF !
Don’t sleep on this, we don’t get setups like this very often.
While Bitcoin is delivering a daily performance of nearly 5%, investors on Binance don’t seem to believe this rally will last.
Whiereas BTC continues to climb, funding rates on… pic.twitter.com/l9PDV8IhtY
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) April 22, 2025
This divergence between increasing prices and trader skepticism could potentially trigger a short squeeze if bearish positions are forced to close.
On-chain analytics from Glassnode further reveal that long-term holders have amassed 635,340 BTC since January, boosting their total holdings to 13.76 million BTC. These long-term investors typically seize opportunities during price dips and are regarded as the foundation of sustained bullish trends. In stark contrast, short-term holders have divested over 460,000 BTC, lowering their total holdings to roughly 3.5 million BTC.
Market Sentiment Undergoes a Shift as Cycle Theories Are Tested
As Bitcoin approaches the $95,000 threshold, discussions are erupting over whether the current uptick signifies the onset of a genuine bull market or simply a brief bounce back.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant and previously bearish on the market, is reevaluating his perspective. In a post dated April 23, he acknowledged that BTC’s recovery, currently trading 10% above his earlier prediction, might indicate a decline in confidence in traditional market cycle theories.
“If Bitcoin hits new ATH before Q4, I’m ready to throw out the cycle theory,” Ju stated in a tweet.
After I said the bull cycle was over, #Bitcoin dropped 10%—but now it’s 10% above where it was when I made that call.
I still think we’re moving within a wide range. If it breaks above $100K, I’ll gladly admit I was wrong. Until then, I’m keeping an eye on the data for a few…
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) April 23, 2025
This evolving narrative, fueled by institutional buying, sees large entities such as Strategy consistently procuring significant volumes of BTC.
Eric Balchunas, a Bloomberg ETF analyst, links Bitcoin’s recent resilience to a shift in the investor demographic, noting that large institutional players are now absorbing supply, taking the place of retail investors who previously dominated the market.
Bitcoin ETFs have eked out positive inflows past month and YTD and $IBIT is +2.4b YTD (Top 1%). Impressive and IMO helps explain why btc’s price has been relatively stable: bc it’s owners are more stable! For the past 15mo the ETFs and Saylor have been buying up all ‘dumps’ from… pic.twitter.com/X40b2bgjEL
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) April 16, 2025
As short-term holders take profits or exit the market, long-term holders are shifting back into accumulation mode. The decrease in BTC held at a loss, which has fallen from over 5 million coins earlier this month to 2.6 million, suggests a more positive sentiment and a healthier market environment.
The recent selling trends have largely been driven by investors who entered the market at higher price points during BTC’s earlier surges past the $100,000 mark, resulting in unrealized losses.
The future trajectory of BTC, particularly in relation to breaking existing all-time highs before the close of Q4, remains highly anticipated.
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