Bitcoin may be positioning itself for a bullish breakout in light of the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates, according to a recent analysis by onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.
Key Insights:
Bitcoin is demonstrating positive indicators as the Fed opts to keep interest rates steady, a historically favorable macro indicator for the cryptocurrency.
CryptoQuant identifies a noteworthy divergence between the stable price of Bitcoin and a decline in open interest, which it interprets as a healthy market reset.
An increase in ask liquidity around the $106,000 mark raises the likelihood of a short squeeze if upward momentum builds.
In a post dated June 19, CryptoQuant noted emerging favorable dynamics for Bitcoin following the Fed’s policy meeting on June 18, where policymakers unanimously chose to pause rate hikes.
Historically, such pauses have had a beneficial impact on Bitcoin, and market analysts anticipate that 2025 could present optimal conditions for risk assets.
CryptoQuant Observes Divergence Between Bitcoin Price and Open Interest
CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha pointed to trading data from Binance highlighting a divergence between Bitcoin’s price and open interest (OI).
“Bitcoin has consistently formed equal lows just above the $104,000 level, which has functioned as a strong demand zone, repeatedly absorbing selling pressure,” Taha stated.
In contrast, open interest on Binance has been experiencing lower lows, indicating ongoing deleveraging in the derivatives market.
This scenario, where the price holds firm while OI declines, is often interpreted as a sign that weaker positions are being purged, which could facilitate a more stable upward movement.
“The timing of this market cleanup coincides with the Fed’s decision to suspend rate hikes, which typically serves as a supportive macroeconomic signal for risk-on assets like Bitcoin,” the firm expressed.
In light of the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, Powell maintained a cautious stance, avoiding any hawkish or dovish implications. He conveyed a “wait and see” attitude amid rising uncertainties, prompting calm reactions from the markets.
However, as open interest declines while Bitcoin price remains above its demand zone, bearish sentiment may be fading… pic.twitter.com/5gsK5QTwPY
— COIN360 (@COIN360com) June 19, 2025
Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited bullish tendencies in the aftermath of rate stabilization, particularly when open interest diminishes and liquidation activity slows down. This environment, coupled with robust price support, provides analysts with a compelling reason to monitor for potential upward shifts.
Additional data from CoinGlass bolsters the optimistic outlook, with reports of increasing ask liquidity near the $106,000 benchmark, which could trigger a short squeeze if buying momentum accelerates.
As Bitcoin continues to hover within a narrow trading range, the synthesis of macroeconomic stability and a cleanup in onchain metrics suggests that a shift in momentum may be on the horizon.
Bitcoin’s Current Consolidation Phase
Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating just below the $105,000 threshold, with trading occurring around $104,900 at the time of this report. The price dynamics indicate a neutral-to-slightly bullish stance, reinforced by tight Bollinger Bands and steady relative strength index (RSI) values.
On a 2-hour chart, Bitcoin has consistently recorded higher lows near the $104,000 mark, establishing a stable demand zone.
With the RSI located around 48, momentum appears to be balanced, devoid of immediate overbought or oversold signals. Despite the MACD remaining negative, it is beginning to flatten, indicating a possible shift in the short-term trend.
The 30-minute chart further supports this interpretation, showing the RSI near 51 and the MACD exhibiting a modest positive crossover. Meanwhile, Bollinger Bands remain comparatively tight, suggesting that the price movement may be coiling ahead of a significant shift.
In the more immediate 1-minute chart, short-term momentum appears subdued, with the RSI at 38.26 and a flat MACD indicating a lack of intraday interest. The price is oscillating between $104,864 and $104,999, reflecting minimal volatility during the observed timeframe.
Overall, Bitcoin seems to be entrenched in a consolidation phase with a slightly bullish bias.
A decisive breakout above the $105,500 level could pave the way to $107K, while maintaining above $104K is crucial for sustained bullish momentum. Furthermore, a rise in spot volume near resistance levels may heighten the potential for a short squeeze.
The previous article title read as follows: Bitcoin Price Eyes Bullish Breakout as Fed Holds Rates Steady, Says CryptoQuant.
