The latest bullish trend in Bitcoin’s market is positioning the cryptocurrency precariously close to a euphoric phase, as data reveals that over 85% of all Bitcoin holders are currently seeing profits.
This significant threshold prompts speculation regarding the potential peak of the current market cycle, particularly as various technical and behavioral indicators begin to signal warnings of possible short-term corrections.
A recent analysis from CryptoQuant, authored by contributor Darkfost, highlights that Bitcoin’s “supply in profit” metric—an essential indicator reflecting the percentage of BTC holders who are above their cost basis—has risen to over 85%. This marks a recovery from a dip to 75% observed during the last market correction.
Source: CryptoQuant
While the increase in profit levels generally suggests a strong upward trend, it also nudges the market closer to a state of euphoria, which has historically precipitated notable pullbacks during previous cycles.
Darkfost pointed out, “Having a large portion of supply in profit is not a bad thing; it tends to support bullish trends until it reaches euphoric levels.”
Statistically, the threshold of 90% in this metric has been indicative of peak optimism, subsequently followed by corrections.
During bearish markets, the supply in profit can dip to around 45–50%, a range that has previously signaled deep capitulation and possible long-term buying opportunities.
On-Chain Activity: Demand and Volatility Paint a Mixed Picture
In addition to price and profit levels, recent blockchain activity and derivatives market data present mixed signals regarding Bitcoin’s short-term direction.
A positive development can be seen in the surge of Daily Active Addresses. Data from IntoTheBlock shows that the number of unique active Bitcoin addresses has exceeded 800,000, suggesting an increase in user engagement on the network.
The number of active $BTC addresses is spiking, reaching over 800k yesterday.
While it is still far from its highs, the rebound signals a clear pickup in on-chain engagement; often a sign of renewed market demand. pic.twitter.com/EAm57QsLxY
— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) April 29, 2025
Historically, jumps in active addresses have aligned with periods of increased volatility or bullish trends, as more participants enter the market to benefit from price fluctuations.
Despite this rise, expectations should be tempered; the current figure of 800,000 remains below the 900,000 peak recorded in 2023 and trails behind the 1.2 million addresses observed during the bull runs of 2021 and 2017.
This indicates that, although prices have been climbing, Bitcoin has not yet reached the level of mainstream engagement or interest seen during prior euphoric periods.
Simultaneously, options market data points to a growing open interest, indicating a potential wave of speculative activity. Coinglass reports that Bitcoin’s open interest rose by $1 billion between April 28 and April 30, while Ethereum saw a $150 million increase.
Source: CoinGlass
The implied volatility (IV) for both cryptocurrencies has decreased, suggesting a cooling market atmosphere. Bitcoin’s 7-day IV fell from 53% to 38%, and its 30-day IV decreased to 43%.
This reduction in volatility has not diminished bullish sentiment on some trading platforms. Notably, on Derive.xyz, 73% of Bitcoin options premiums are being utilized to purchase calls, with a call-to-put ratio of 3:1. Ethereum traders display an even more aggressive approach, with 81.8% of premiums directed toward calls, and a call-to-put ratio of 4:1.
Demand Momentum Still Negative Despite Price Gains
Even with the price surge and bullish institutional inflows, another crucial metric is raising alarms. Bitcoin’s 30-day Demand Momentum remains deeply negative, indicating a persistent lack of robust demand from short-term holders.
CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk reports that the current 30-day Demand Momentum is at -483,860 BTC, while its 30-day Simple Moving Average remains around -310,700 BTC.
This metric is derived by subtracting the long-term holder supply from the short-term holder supply over a 30-day timeframe. A negative reading suggests that long-term holders are accumulating less BTC compared to the distribution by short-term holders, a trend typically indicative of late-cycle distribution phases.
This scenario implies that recent buying activity is largely driven by traders seeking short-term gains rather than investors with long-term confidence. Such market dynamics have historically preceded price corrections, as experienced in mid-2021 and the second quarter of 2022, both of which were followed by sharp declines.
However, these negative divergences have also often been indicative of market bottoms, setting the stage for subsequent rallies.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading within a range of $94,000 to $95,000, facing key resistance at $98,000 and support near the $85,000–$87,000 level. Mixed technical signals persist, with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 67 suggesting near-overbought conditions, while the Stochastic RSI indicates signs of trend fatigue. Nevertheless, bullish trends remain evident in momentum and MACD readings.
While the market shows structural strength supported by institutional investments, a lack of retail conviction and lukewarm user engagement may impede Bitcoin’s chances of experiencing further upward movement without entering a phase of consolidation or correction.
The upcoming weeks could be critical for the cryptocurrency. Should the supply in profit exceed the euphoric 90% level and active addresses continue on an upward trajectory, Bitcoin may have the potential to surge past the $100,000 mark.
Conversely, if short-term holders maintain their dominance and demand momentum continues its negative trend, a near-term peak could be imminent.
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