James Check, the lead analyst at Glassnode, has raised alarms regarding the viability of corporate strategies centered on Bitcoin treasuries. He contends that the initial gains may already be depleted for newcomers as the cryptocurrency market evolves.
Key Insights:
Check believes that the potential for profit within Bitcoin treasury strategies may be diminishing.
Established players like Michael Saylor’s organization hold a significant advantage.
In contrast, new treasury firms may find it challenging to distinguish themselves and maintain their value.
In a social media post on Friday, Check stated, “My instinct is the Bitcoin treasury strategy has a far shorter lifespan than most expect,” warning that many recent entrants aiming to build Bitcoin reserves could find it difficult to keep investor interest alive or justify premium valuations.
“For many new entrants, it could already be over,” he asserted.
Established Bitcoin Treasuries Excel Amidst Challenges for Newcomers
Check emphasized that early adopters, such as Saylor’s firm, which possesses nearly 600,000 BTC, are solidifying their dominance. In contrast, newcomers face a more difficult challenge.
“Nobody wants the 50th Treasury company,” Check remarked, cautioning that investors are increasingly looking for unique value propositions rather than another entity simply adding Bitcoin to its portfolio.
“I think we’re already close to the ‘show me’ phase, where it will be increasingly difficult for random company X to sustain a premium and get off the ground without a serious niche,” he added.
My instinct is the Bitcoin treasury strategy has a far shorter lifespan than most expect, and for many new entrants, it could already be over.
It’s not about a measuring contest.
It’s about how serious & sustainable your product & strategy is to sustain the accumulation.
— _Checkmate (@_Checkmatey_) July 4, 2025
Despite Bitcoin’s recent surge to within 4% of its all-time high, Check warned that the influx of Bitcoin treasury firms could lead to market saturation.
Data from BitcoinTreasuries indicates that at least 21 new entities have added BTC holdings in just the past month.
While Check noted that speculative retail investors might be drawn to these newcomers, he highlighted that they do not possess “infinite money” to sustain multiple businesses following the same strategy.
He further pointed out that established firms like Saylor’s enterprise have more opportunities to validate their investment thesis compared to newer entrants.
Echoing Check’s concerns, Udi Wizardheimer, co-founder of Taproot Wizards, observed that many startups entering the Bitcoin treasury field seem driven by a desire for quick profits rather than a long-term commitment to the strategy.
“Many of the folks raising just see easy money and have no idea what they’re doing,” Wizardheimer stated.
He suggested that weaker players could eventually be acquired at discounted prices by stronger firms, although he anticipates that the trend may still have “a few more legs.”
Nobody wants the 50th Treasury company.
I think we’re already close to the ‘show me’ phase, where it will be increasingly difficult for random company X to sustain a premium and get off the ground without a serious niche.
Retail speculators buy startup TCo’s, and they don’t have…
— _Checkmate (@_Checkmatey_) July 4, 2025
Growing Concerns for the Future of Bitcoin Treasury Strategies
Doubts about the sustainability of Bitcoin treasury strategies are mounting.
In a report dated June 29, Breed, a venture capital firm, warned that only a handful of Bitcoin treasury companies are likely to endure in the long run without risking a “death spiral” in which their stock prices align closely with the value of their Bitcoin assets.
This caution resonates with recent remarks from Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, who has expressed concerns over the treasury strategies employed by various publicly traded firms.
Sigel pointed out the use of at-the-market (ATM) share issuance programs, arguing that these could lead to stock dilution as a company’s share price approaches its Bitcoin net asset value (NAV).
Compounding these issues, New York’s Pomerantz LLP has initiated a class action lawsuit against Saylor’s firm, alleging that it misled investors about the profitability and risks associated with its cryptocurrency investment strategy.
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