Bitcoin is under significant pressure, with forecasts suggesting a potential decline to $92,000 following alarming drops in demand metrics. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, has indicated that Bitcoin is currently situated in a “soft patch,” raising concerns over the sustainability of its ongoing bull market.
https://t.co/OCS3x3puwy
— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) June 19, 2025
Recent analyses reveal that the apparent demand for Bitcoin has fallen nearly 50% from its peak in May, from 228,000 BTC to just 118,000 BTC over the last month.
Source: CryptoQuant
As Bitcoin trades at around $104,700, it has seen a decline of 6.5% from the highs of $112,000 recorded in May. This decline has coincided with short-term holders offloading 800,000 BTC since late May, reflecting waning participation from new investors and a growing trend among futures traders toward short positions.
Source: Finance Newso
Despite these troubling demand figures, many analysts maintain that Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals remain strong. Currently, the cryptocurrency sits at just 4.7% global adoption, a level reminiscent of internet adoption rates in 1999, highlighting significant room for growth.
#Bitcoin is at 4.7% world adoption, same as Internet Adoption in 1999.
We are so early. pic.twitter.com/i2x2PKAIJC
— Bitcoin News (@BitcoinNews21M) June 19, 2025
Nevertheless, the immediate technical indicators and fundamental outlook present unsettling signals concerning the bull market’s viability. Futures data suggests that traders, instead of cashing in their profits, are increasingly establishing short positions as Bitcoin has struggled to maintain levels above $110,000.
The accumulation of these factors suggests a precarious scenario that could lead to the most significant correction since Bitcoin crossed the $100,000 mark.
Source: CryptoQuant
Projecting down to $92,000 aligns with CryptoQuant’s “Traders’ On-chain Realized Price,” a crucial metric historically serving as a robust support level in bull markets, though breaching it could indicate more severe weakness.
This potential downturn would reflect a 12% drop from current prices and nearly an 18% decline from recent peaks.
Institutional Withdrawal and Retail Capitulation Highlight Demand Weakness
The analysis from CryptoQuant spotlights a significant shift in institutional and high-net-worth demand that previously propelled Bitcoin toward $112,000.
Whale accumulation has sharply decreased from a 3.9% monthly growth rate in late May to a mere 1.7% now, while U.S. ETF inflows have plummeted by 66%, dropping from peak daily transactions of 9,700 BTC in April down to only 3,300 BTC.
Source: CryptoQuant
This retreat by institutional investors indicates a withdrawal of the strategic capital necessary for sustained price rallies.
Similarly, retail capitulation poses its challenges, with short-term holders reducing their Bitcoin holdings by 800,000 BTC since May 27. This group, comprised of newer market entrants and those following momentum trends, has decreased by 15%, from 5.3 million to 4.5 million BTC.
The lack of demand from these participants could foster a cycle where declining buying interest exacerbates selling pressure.
Arizona Bitcoin reserve bill HB2324 outlines three options for handling seized crypto assets, including storage in state-approved digital wallets.#Arizona #Bitcoinreservehttps://t.co/Nk9W7t46F1
— Finance Newso.com (@Finance Newso) June 20, 2025
Despite favorable developments, such as Arizona’s Bitcoin reserve bill and Prenetics’ recent $20 million investment, the demand destruction persists, indicating that positive news cannot outweigh the underlying technical deterioration.
According to CryptoQuant’s data from the futures market, a notable shift has occurred, with their Traders’ Behavior Dominance metric illustrating that market participants have moved from profit-taking after Bitcoin’s recent peak to actively initiating short positions, suggesting a growing belief that further declines are on the horizon.
Source: CoinGlass
Technical Analysis Indicates Key Support Levels and Cycle Status
From a technical viewpoint, Bitcoin’s current status signals a long-term bullish structure contrasted by immediate corrective pressures that might influence whether the $92,000 forecast becomes a reality.
Source: @AkaBull_ on X
Weekly Wyckoff accumulation analysis shows Bitcoin is still within the “Expansion” phase of a major market cycle. The asset appears to have completed a five-wave Elliott sequence, with potential targets ranging between $140,000 and $150,000 if this pattern continues as expected.
However, the recent drop in demand could force Bitcoin to revisit the “Manipulation” phase around $85,000 to $90,000 prior to resuming its ascent.
Source: @ByCoinvo on X
The biweekly super cycle analysis contextualizes Bitcoin within an established logarithmic growth channel since 2017. Currently trading at $104,700 places Bitcoin in the developmental stages of its 2025 bull cycle, having successfully surpassed previous cycle peaks and established new all-time highs.
The historical overlay of patterns across different cycles demonstrates a significant degree of consistency, indicating that while short-term corrections are natural and necessary, the long-term direction remains positive with potential price targets between $200,000 and $300,000.
Source: SimonaLawson on TradingView
Additionally, detailed analysis of the hourly Elliott Wave structure reveals a more nuanced insight into immediate price behavior, displaying a complex corrective pattern that reinforces CryptoQuant’s bearish stance.
The wave count indicates that Bitcoin may have completed an initial five-wave advance and entered a corrective A-B-C sequence. On declining volume and momentum, it has breached pivotal support around $107,000.
Such a micro-structural assessment implies that sustained breaches below the $100,000 threshold may catalyze algorithmic selling, accelerating the descent toward the projected $92,000 target, marking a step in a more extensive second-wave correction.
Overall, technical indicators are suggesting a high-probability scenario where Bitcoin tests the critical $92,000 level associated with the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price, a level that has historically ensured strong support in bull markets.
However, the long-term cycle analysis implies that this possible correction would represent a healthy retracement within a sustained bull market, potentially offering an attractive buying opportunity ahead of the next significant incline toward cycle highs.
Central to this scenario is whether Bitcoin can maintain above $100,000 or if demand will continue to decline sufficiently to trigger a deeper correction.
The post Bitcoin Could Crash to $92K as Demand Drops 50%, CryptoQuant Warns – Is the Bull Run Over? appeared first on Finance Newso.
