Greece Ramps Up Defense Spending Amid Turkey Tensions

While Greece may not be the first country that comes to mind when discussing significant defense expenditures, it stands out as one of the top NATO spenders. In the past year, only four allied nations allocated a larger proportion of their GDP to defense than Greece.

The United States leads the pack, followed by Poland, Latvia, and Estonia, all of which have significantly increased their military budgets in response to the heightened threats posed by Russia.

In contrast, Greece has maintained a robust defense budget, dedicating approximately 3.1% of its GDP to military spending in 2024.

The strained relations with Turkey, a fellow NATO member, are central to Greece’s defense expenditure strategy.

Experts highlight that Greece and Turkey share a complicated history filled with conflict. Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at Bruegel, noted that the nations’ tensions trace back centuries, marked by wars, mass displacements of populations, and disputes over Cyprus. The proximity of numerous Greek islands to the Turkish coast adds a geographical dimension to these tensions.

“There is a significant number of Greek islands adjacent to Turkey that could, theoretically, be easily invaded. Consequently, Greece maintains a substantial military presence on many of these islands, which incurs significant costs,” Kirkegaard explained.

Concerns regarding Turkish military intentions remain pertinent, according to George Tzogopoulos, a senior fellow at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP). He points out that Greece’s defense spending is fundamentally a means of safeguarding its sovereignty and asserting its rights.

With regional instability, particularly influenced by Turkey’s assertive policies across the Mediterranean, Tzogopoulos stressed the necessity for Greece to bolster its defense capabilities. “Greece must be ready for any eventuality,” he remarked.

Despite its sizable defense budget, Greece’s military capabilities face several challenges. Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of political risk advisory Teneo, pointed out that Greece has increasingly invested in advanced weaponry, particularly since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, he noted that a significant portion of the funding has been directed towards purchasing foreign systems.

“The need for a strong domestic defense industry is critical for Greece to lessen its reliance on external arms suppliers,” Piccoli emphasized.

Additionally, problems persist within Greece’s military structure, as highlighted by Kirkegaard. Many of the existing tanks in the Greek army are outdated, and troop training does not adequately prepare them for operating these vehicles in coordinated formations. Moreover, the geographic distribution of equipment across numerous islands adds an extra layer of complexity.

“Thus, it would be misleading to equate Greece’s defense spending directly with its overall military capabilities,” Kirkegaard cautioned.

As NATO representatives convene, Greece’s robust defense spending will likely amplify its influence among the coalition’s 32 members. This financial commitment has strengthened Athens’ ties with major powers, including the U.S. and France, which are key suppliers of military equipment to Greece.

Piccoli noted that Greece’s defense investments also function as a geopolitical bargaining chip, enhancing its standing and security assurances in an intricate regional landscape.

At the upcoming NATO summit, the topic of defense spending will be a focal point, with reports indicating a collective agreement to raise spending targets to 5% of GDP. This target includes 3.5% for traditional defense and 1.5% for additional areas such as cybersecurity and infrastructure.

For Greece, the transition to a 5% spending target may be less challenging compared to other nations, yet some experts, including Kirkegaard, express skepticism regarding Greece’s ability to meet this benchmark. “The broader trend in NATO’s expenditure increase is largely a response to Russian threats, which are not Greece’s primary military concern,” he noted.