In the midst of a prolonged market correction that has seen Ethereum tumble from its peak of $4,107 on December 16, 2024, recent on-chain analysis reveals that long-term holders of ETH remain optimistic about the cryptocurrency’s future.
The shift in market sentiment became evident on March 10, 2025, when the price of Ethereum dropped to $1,866.70, pushing accumulating addresses—those consistently adding to their ETH holdings—into a territory of unrealized losses. Typically classified as long-term holders (LTHs), these addresses have an average holding period of over 155 days and faced a realized price of $2,026 at that time. Instead of selling in a panic, these investors chose to reinforce their positions.
ETH Holders Refuse to Sell: Accumulating Addresses Lower Their Cost Basis “On March 10 they held 15.5356M ETH, and by May 3 this rose to 19.0378M ETH, a 22.54% increase. Behavior reflects structural conviction & clear expectations of short-term appreciation.” – By @oro_crypto pic.twitter.com/yx12tC7N0O
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 5, 2025
CryptoQuant’s metric, “ETH: Realized Price by Accumulating Addresses,” demonstrates that this group responded to the price decline not by liquidating assets, but by decreasing their cost basis instead.
Source: CryptoQuant
Between March 10 and May 3, these addresses managed to lower their realized price to $1,980, a 2.32% reduction, while notably increasing their holdings. The number of ETH retained by these investors surged from 15.5356 million to 19.0378 million, reflecting a significant 22.54% increase.
Source: CryptoQuant
This accumulation behavior suggests a profound belief in Ethereum’s long-term viability, even as broader market sentiment remains cautious.
Support Holding, But Market Remains on a Knife’s Edge
May has been a turbulent month for Ethereum. Starting above the $1,800 threshold, ETH has struggled to maintain upward momentum and is currently testing resistance near $1,820.
On May 3, Ethereum briefly climbed to a local high of $1,873 before falling below crucial support levels, such as the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
Current technical indicators suggest a short-term bearish trend, with a resistance line forming around $1,835 on the ETH/USD hourly chart.
The immediate risk now centers around ETH’s ability to maintain its position within the $1,772 to $1,824 range, where over 4.5 million addresses have collectively acquired more than 6.36 million ETH, with an average cost basis of roughly $1,799. If the price dips below this critical support, analysts caution that the decline could be sharp.
Below the $1,772 mark, there is a noticeable drop in investor activity, indicating fewer buyers to stabilize the price. Under such circumstances, Ethereum’s value could fall to as low as $1,500.
The most critical support level for #Ethereum $ETH is at $1,770, according to on-chain data from @intotheblock! pic.twitter.com/PtEBRaRlWT
— Ali (@ali_charts) May 3, 2025
Prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez emphasized this pivotal moment in a post, warning that a further decline could ensue if this support holds weakly.
Nevertheless, there remains a sense of cautious optimism among some investors. Should Ethereum rebound from this level and breach resistance at $1,840, followed by the significant mark at $1,880, it could potentially rally towards $1,950, and even reclaim the $2,000 milestone if momentum sustains.
However, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling below 50 and the MACD indicating bearish momentum, the immediate outlook harbors substantial uncertainty.
Speculation of a Breakout Grows with Market Sentiment and Roadmap Catalysts
Despite the shaky price action, some analysts theorize that Ethereum could be on the verge of a breakout, contingent on the right market catalyst. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Fund and a respected figure in crypto analysis, highlighted on April 30 that Ethereum appears to be consolidating within a falling wedge pattern, which often signals a bullish reversal.
$ETH is consolidating before a big breakout upwards. The liquidity is up for grabs; it just needs a news-related item to kick it off. pic.twitter.com/VQaGvfZcA0
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) April 30, 2025
Van de Poppe’s insights draw attention to declining trading volumes—a typical characteristic of the falling wedge pattern—as resistance becomes steeper and support flattens. He posits that Ethereum is in a prime spot for a breakout, with the prevailing bearish sentiment among altcoins creating a contrarian opportunity.
“The next leg upwards is on the horizon,” he added, suggesting that the prevailing negativity surrounding Ethereum and other major altcoins might set the stage for robust returns once the sentiment shifts.
The next leg upwards is on the horizon for the #Crypto markets. The bearish sentiment remains extreme on #Altcoins and that’s an ideal ingredient for the next leg up.
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) April 30, 2025
The potential impact of Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin’s roadmap for 2025 adds another layer of bullish potential. As Ethereum’s mainnet matures and Layer 2 solutions continue to thrive in the aftermath of Dencun, investors are keenly focused on developments that enhance scalability, efficiency, and ecosystem growth.
While the behavior of long-term holders underscores significant confidence, and technical indicators hint at a possible breakout, Ethereum still requires a catalyst to shift the prevailing narrative. The future of Ethereum appears precariously reliant on those willing to hold and accumulate amid fluctuations, embodying a belief not only in the asset’s price but also in its enduring platform potential.
The dynamics at play raise questions about whether the increased accumulation signifies a pivotal moment for Ethereum’s price cycle, but it is evident that committed investors are strengthening their positions.
The post ETH Holders Accumulate 22.5% More as Addresses Lower Cost Basis, Signaling Bullish Conviction – CryptoQuant appeared first on Finance Newso.
