MicroStrategy (MSTR), the publicly traded company renowned for maintaining the largest Bitcoin reserves among listed firms, is poised for potential inclusion in the S&P 500, contingent on Bitcoin’s price stability ahead of the second quarter’s conclusion.
Key Takeaways:
The company’s entry into the S&P 500 is dependent on Bitcoin remaining above the threshold of $95,240 until June 30. New accounting regulations permit gains from Bitcoin to be factored into earnings, amplifying the importance of its market value for Q2 financial results.
Financial analyst Jeff Walton, in a video released on Tuesday, expressed a 91% probability that MicroStrategy will qualify for S&P 500 inclusion, provided that Bitcoin maintains its price without a decline exceeding 10% prior to the quarter’s end.
At the time of Walton’s assessment, Bitcoin was valued around $106,044.
MicroStrategy’s S&P 500 Aspirations Depend on Bitcoin Stability
Walton identified $95,240 as the pivotal level; falling below this mark could render MicroStrategy ineligible for earnings reporting criteria under S&P 500 guidelines. He elaborated, “To qualify for S&P 500 consideration, a company must report cumulative positive earnings over the past four quarters.”
MicroStrategy has incurred losses over the last three quarters, and its substantial Bitcoin holding, which stands at 592,345 BTC, places its Q2 earnings in tight correlation with the asset’s fair market value.
Recent fluctuations have raised the stakes; Bitcoin momentarily dipped below $100,000 over the weekend amid escalating geopolitical concerns between Israel and Iran, casting doubt on MicroStrategy’s qualification prospects. However, the cryptocurrency has since recovered, trading near $106,200 as of Wednesday.
91% chance of $MSTR qualifying for S&P in 6 days https://t.co/uGkzAuTQ2Y
— Jeff Walton (@PunterJeff) June 24, 2025
MicroStrategy implemented new accounting standards (ASU 2023-08) at the start of 2024, allowing it to incorporate unrealized gains and losses from its Bitcoin holdings into its net income. This update markedly influences its financial disclosures and eligibility for the S&P 500.
Walton’s prediction is underpinned by Bitcoin’s historical price trends. Observations since September 2014 indicate that, across more than 3,900 six-day intervals, Bitcoin has only dropped more than 10% on 343 occasions, representing approximately 8.7% of the time.
“The longer we progress without a decline, the lesser the odds become,” Walton cautioned, noting that if only two days remain in the quarter, the likelihood of a 10% drop diminishes to 4.2%.
Should MicroStrategy succeed in its bid, it would join Coinbase as the second cryptocurrency-related firm to be inducted into the S&P 500 in 2025. The company was previously recognized by the Nasdaq-100 in December 2024, aligning itself with leading technology enterprises.
Potential for Market Leadership
In May, Walton suggested that MicroStrategy could ascend to become the largest publicly traded entity globally, given its substantial exposure to Bitcoin.
“MicroStrategy possesses more of the most valuable asset and high-quality collateral on earth than any other corporation, by significant margins,” he stated.
The company aims to raise up to $2.1 billion through the sale of its 10% Series A Perpetual Strife Preferred Stock, following the structure of previous fundraising efforts which largely funded expansive Bitcoin acquisitions.
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