On Sunday, Poland will hold a pivotal presidential election that could determine whether the nation continues on the pro-European path advocated by Prime Minister Donald Tusk or shifts towards a more nationalist approach aligned with supporters of former U.S. President Donald Trump.
The anticipated return of Trump to power has invigorated eurosceptics throughout Europe, with this election representing a critical assessment of Tusk’s pro-European agenda since he assumed office in 2023, overthrowing the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party.
The contest features Rafal Trzaskowski, the Mayor of Warsaw and a member of Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO), facing off against Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian endorsed by PiS. Trzaskowski is perceived as the leading candidate, likely to advance to a run-off on June 1 if no contender secures more than 50% of the votes. Media regulations prevent the release of opinion poll data starting Saturday morning until the polls close on Sunday.
In addition to the main candidates, the election includes far-right politician Slawomir Mentzen from the Confederation party, Szymon Holownia, the Parliament Speaker representing the centre-right Poland 2050, and Magdalena Biejat from the Left.
This first round of voting in Poland coincides with a subsequent presidential run-off in Romania, where nationalist George Simion, who champions the “Make Romania Great Again” ethos, is set to challenge the centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan.
A victory for eurosceptic candidates in both countries could trigger significant repercussions within the EU, which is currently navigating the complexities of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the implications of Trump’s tariffs.
The voting in Poland is scheduled to begin at 7 a.m. (0500 GMT) and conclude at 9 p.m., with approximately 29 million citizens eligible to participate.
Although the Polish president holds limited executive authority, the position does come with the power to veto legislation. This has permitted outgoing President Andrzej Duda, associated with PiS, to obstruct Tusk’s attempts to reverse judicial reforms implemented by PiS, which Tusk argues undermine democratic principles.
Trzaskowski has committed to reinforcing Poland’s role within the European Union and seeks to collaborate with the government in repealing the judicial changes imposed by PiS.
‘End the chaos’
“I would certainly enhance our relations with partners… within NATO and the EU,” Trzaskowski expressed to state broadcaster TVP Info on Friday. “I will also request that lawmakers provide me with the legislation that Duda vetoed for my signature… My aim is also to bring an end to the chaos in the justice system that has resulted from PiS’s governance.”
However, Nawrocki’s campaign has been marred by claims of deceit regarding the acquisition of a flat from an elderly individual, a charge he vehemently rejects. Despite the controversy, Nawrocki received a public endorsement from Trump during a meeting at the White House.
Nawrocki frames the election as a critical moment to prevent Tusk from consolidating unchecked power and to counter the liberal values associated with Trzaskowski, who has previously supported LGBT marches and removed Christian symbols from public spaces during his tenure as mayor of Warsaw.
“The removal of the cross in Warsaw, which represents a thousand years of Polish heritage, is an affront to our strength and spirit,” he asserted at a rally in Lublin.
While Nawrocki shares some eurosceptic views with his central European peers, he diverges by advocating for military support to assist Ukraine in its defense against Russia. Nevertheless, he has also tapped into the sentiments of Poles who are apprehensive about the influx of Ukrainian refugees.
He has called for prioritizing Polish citizens in public services and has criticized Ukraine’s responses regarding the exhumation of Poles who fell victim to Ukrainian nationalists during World War II.
