DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — U.S. President Donald Trump is set to arrive in the Persian Gulf region—possibly referred to as the Arabian Gulf during his visit—on May 13, embarking on an official trip that will include significant stops in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.
This visit comes at a critical juncture as geopolitical tensions are running high. Key agenda items for the trip include discussions on achieving a ceasefire in the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict, alongside deliberations on oil, trade, investment agreements, and the prospects for policy shifts regarding advanced semiconductor exports and nuclear programs.
Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, spoke with Finance Newso’s Dan Murphy, indicating, “We expect to see a lot of announcements across a broad spectrum of areas.” She highlighted that a potential removal of Trump’s 10% tariffs on aluminum and steel would benefit Gulf nations, especially those exporting these metals to the U.S., even though they comprise a small fraction of their respective GDPs.
Trump’s historical rapport with Gulf Arab nations, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, is noteworthy, especially as his children have business enterprises and planned real estate projects within these countries. This longstanding connection could enhance these nations’ positions during trade negotiations, albeit raising concerns among critics about possible conflicts of interest—a claim the Trump family disputes.
Trump’s inaugural foreign trip during his presidency was to Saudi Arabia, a nation now facilitating negotiations intended to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict, thus increasing its significance in U.S. foreign policy. Qatar has also been instrumental in mediating discussions between Israel and Hamas, focusing on ceasefires and hostage negotiations.
Wall Street and AI in the Gulf
The impending presidential visit is set to attract a number of influential figures from Wall Street and Silicon Valley to Saudi Arabia. An investment forum announced for May 13 in Riyadh is expected to host notable attendees, including BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and Palantir CEO Alex Karp, along with executives from major corporations such as Citigroup, IBM, Qualcomm, Alphabet, and Franklin Templeton. David Sacks, who oversees AI and crypto initiatives at the White House, is also slated to attend.
Malik added, “We also expect to see many investment deals being announced. Both ways, we’ve already noted the UAE’s recent investments in U.S. sectors such as AI and energy, and we believe U.S. companies may find further opportunities to invest.”
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have significantly invested in AI infrastructure, aiming to establish themselves as global leaders in the technology. Consequently, potential discussions regarding the future of U.S. semiconductor exports are anticipated, particularly in light of concerns surrounding national security that have thus far limited their access.
On Wednesday, the Trump administration announced plans to repeal a Biden-era “AI diffusion rule,” which imposed stringent export controls on advanced AI chips, including to U.S. allies. This rule will be replaced with a simplified regulation aimed at fostering American innovation and maintaining the nation’s technological dominance, though specifics regarding the new rule have not yet been disclosed.
G42, a UAE-based AI firm, has taken steps to align with U.S. regulations by divesting from Chinese entities and forming a partnership with Microsoft, which previously invested $1.5 billion in G42.
Nuclear ambitions
The Trump administration is currently engaged in negotiations with Iran concerning its nuclear program, with both the UAE and Saudi Arabia voicing their support for these efforts. This marks a significant shift in their stance compared to their positions during the Obama administration regarding U.S. dealings with Tehran.
Additionally, Saudi Arabia is pursuing its own civilian nuclear initiative and has sought U.S. assistance and approvals. Historically, any U.S. collaboration on a Saudi nuclear program was contingent upon the kingdom’s normalization of diplomatic relations with Israel; reports suggest this condition may soon evolve during this visit.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, during a visit to Saudi Arabia in April, indicated that the two nations are on a “pathway” toward a civil nuclear agreement, though further announcements are expected to come directly from Trump.
Israel-Gaza negotiations
The future of Gaza is also a critical discussion point, as Trump aims to mediate a resolution. His controversial suggestion to place U.S. control over the war-affected area—described by him as “important real estate”—has drawn strong criticism from Arab leaders.
The U.S. has persistently advocated for ceasefire agreements, recently proposing a 21-day halt to hostilities alongside the release of hostages. However, Israel has recently approved an escalation of military operations and territorial control in Gaza.
Greg Branch, founder of UAE-based Branch Global Capital Advisors, noted, “We have yet to hear a comprehensive plan from the Arab world. If we’re going to see a response led by Arab nations, it’s probably now or never. This will likely be managed delicately behind the scenes and may present a long-term geopolitical risk rather than any immediate macroeconomic concerns.”
Oil and financing
Branch indicated that discussions regarding the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Syria under its new government may also arise. There are reports suggesting the Trump administration’s intention to rename the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Gulf, a move that would be welcomed by Arab nations but could provoke strong backlash from Iran amid ongoing delicate nuclear talks.
Oil prices remain a focal point as Trump has consistently urged OPEC nations, primarily Saudi Arabia, to increase output to alleviate prices for American consumers. While Saudi Arabia has acceded to this request, it may need to reconsider this strategy if prices remain low, impacting its revenue streams.
Financing strategies will hold significant importance for Saudi Arabia during Trump’s visit, according to Malik. In November, Saudi Arabia committed to investing $600 billion in the U.S. over Trump’s term, amid rising costs linked to its Vision 2030 investment plan. The kingdom faces widening budget deficits due to falling global oil prices and extensive public spending.
“Given the current oil price climate, Saudi Arabia will likely seek increased financial support from the U.S. to advance its investment initiatives,” Malik concluded.
Correction: This article has been updated to reflect G42’s status as a private technology company.
